Murphy vs. Domino in Florida's 18th Congressional District: A Case Study in Localizing Congressional Elections to Survive a Political Wave

Abstract

The 2014 Midterm Elections saw Republicans sweep the House of Representatives and retake the United States Senate. This paper examines how select Democrats survived this wave election by analyzing the case of Florida's 18th Congressional District, Patrick Murphy (D-Incumbent) vs Carl Domino (R). The analysis uses descriptive statistics of the district as well as precinct and county election results from 2012 and 2014 in order to show change in the political success of the Democrat Murphy. It then uses advertisement data and campaign finances, as well as personal interviews to find a reason for the change. The author concludes that a focus on the localization of district issues created a variety of effects that both aided Murphy and harmed the challenger Domino in 2014. This chain reaction, including the interaction between local and national politics and parties, would come to define the success of Democrats in the 2014 Midterms.